expert breaks down suspect’s spiral after ‘pivotal’ moment

Nancy Guthrie’s kidnapper is likely spiraling after video and photos of the suspect breaking into her Tucson, Ariz., home on Feb. 1 were shared by the FBI.

As the desperate search for “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie’s 84-year-old mother approaches the two-week mark, Page Six spoke with Chip Massey, a retired FBI hostage negotiator and special agent, who described the release of videos and pictures of the suspect as a “pivotal moment” in the case.

“The captor wanted this family’s money, but what they got was America looking for them,” Massey theorized. “Now that your face is everywhere, your environment has to be very controlled, and that’s a very hard thing to do.”

Massey told us, adding that up until that point, the abductor had complete control of the situation.

Not only does the perpetrator now have to ensure that his “comings and goings” aren’t being monitored, but he also has to care for his victim, who is “medically fragile,” “advanced in age” and was “injured” when she was taken, as Nancy requires daily medication, and a trail of her blood was found just outside her front door.

Massey noted that this person’s “world was already small to begin with” because their job is to “control another human being.”

“So you’re dealing with somebody who has medical needs for sure,” the CEO and co-founder of the Convincing Company said. “And our concern is: Is this captor set up to handle this? Are they equipped both mentally and emotionally? Because this thing, the longer it goes, there’s so many emotional ups and downs, even for the captor.”

Pointing to the publication of the images and clips, Massey theorized that “would’ve created a lot of apprehension and stress and anxiety” for the kidnapper, which can be a double-edged sword.

“On the one hand, it could produce some errors, and we want that. We want them to make mistakes,” Massey told us, noting that the suspect’s heightened emotions can also be “bad” because “we don’t want them to do anything rash or that wouldn’t be of advantage to Nancy’s wellbeing.”

While he acknowledged that the length of time Nancy has been gone is “excruciating,” he explained why it isn’t necessarily “a bad thing in terms of the negotiation process.”

“We want to do our best to establish that connection. We want to humanize Nancy as much as possible,” he said, praising Savannah, 54, for posting home videos of her “lovely mom” amid her various public pleas for her safe return.

Massey went on to share how he is trained to metaphorically disarm an abductor in order to physically disarm them.

“It’s realizing that you have to meet people where they are. This is somebody that is not afraid of violence. … But what you have to focus in on — as strange as this is — is the stress that they’re dealing with right now,” he pointed out.

Massey applauded Savannah and her siblings — sister Annie Guthrie, 56, and brother Camron Guthrie, 61 — for speaking directly to the suspect in a few of their Instagram videos, letting him know that they want to “communicate” and “will pay.”

“So what they’re doing is they’re telling that person, ‘Hey, I’m connecting with you.’ You are absolutely gonna want to key in on the fact that the captor — again, as strange as this is — is dealing himself with the stresses and strains of this event. You’re dealing with somebody who is holding the life of their mother in their hands,” he said.

In spite of his actions, Massey emphasized that the perpetrator still has “basic universal human emotions and needs, so when you can hit those things that are universally connected — not that you’re gonna agree in any way, shape or form with their lifestyle and what they’ve decided to do — you’re going to start to make end roads.”

Massey made sure to add that the negotiation process is the same whether the victim is alive or dead.

However, like the Guthrie family, he’s operating on the belief that Nancy is alive.

Though the suspect in the recently recovered Google Nest camera footage was fully disguised during the break-in, investigators were able to determine the sex and general body proportions, estimating that he’s 5’9″ or 5’10” tall.

Since her abduction, multiple ransom notes have been sent to news organizations describing demands for a large bitcoin payment by specific deadlines.

On Tuesday, a small deposit was made into a bitcoin wallet related to the case, which a cryptocurrency expert told Page Six was another moment the captor lost “control” of the situation, as the transaction is traceable.

Nancy was last seen the night of Jan. 31 and was declared missing the next day.

The reward for information about the case has been increased to $100,000.

The FBI is working closely with the Pima County Sheriff’s Department on the case.