Timothée Chalamet loses and Jessie Buckley wins at SAG Actor Awards 2026 — what are their Oscar chances?

Award season is by far the longest season — five months bigger than baseball and six months fatter than football. It never ends.

Think about this: Sunday night’s Actor Award (formerly SAG) Best Ensemble winner “Sinners” opened last April.  

That’s why I tolerate the two-hour-long-ish Actor Awards, the final stop on the road to the Oscars — they don’t sag.

Even though threepeat host Kristen Bell’s sense of humor was totally perplexing and all of her gags (a game of ping-pong between Ted Danson and Jackie Tohn, huh?) tanked, Netflix’s show was blessedly about 90 minutes shorter than the Oscars will be.

What did the night portend for March 15th’s Academy Awards? Some possible shakeups.

Finally, vampire flick “Sinners” bared its fangs, winning its first top award from a major industry group all season long — Best Ensemble, SAG’s Best Picture equivalent. Could that spell an upset for “One Battle After Another”? Probably not.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle” snatched the far more important Producers Guild Award on Saturday and virtually everything else this winter. It losing the final battle would be an epic shocker. 

But there are some optimistic stats for “Sinners.” Two other movies in the past 25 years managed to go all the way after just winning SAG — “Crash” (uh oh) and “Parasite,” though the latter did earn some Foreign Language Film accolades along the way.

And “Moonlight” only had the Critics Choice under its belt when it surprisingly toppled “La La Land.” 

The same is true of Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed,” though that was a very different era.

I’m still betting on “Battle,” but if something takes it down it will be “Sinners.”

For Timothée Chalamet, Sunday’s womp-womp result will give him even more stress than his frenzied character faces in “Marty Supreme.”

After losing at last week’s BAFTAs to non-Oscar-nominee Robert Aramayo, poor Timmy fell again to “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan at SAG. Yikes. Paul Atreides is not duned — sorry, doomed — yet, however.

It should be noted that SAG historically likes to spread the love. 

No man has ever won Best Actor there twice in a row, and Chalamet came out on top last year for his role as Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” SAG also has a large, populist voting body. 

You’ll recall Timmy then went on to lose at the Academy Awards to Adrien Brody of the dark, simmering indie “The Brutalist.” 

Chalamet has the edge, but this is the most wide-open Best Actor race in more than 20 years. Jordan has a strong chance to hoist the gold again in a fortnight. Or maybe Brazil’s Wagner Moura of “The Secret Agent” sneaks in at the end.

Even so-far-loser Leonardo DiCaprio could pull a Denzel Washington in “Training Day” and solely win the Oscar. Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon“) is circling.

So, it’s not unimaginable that Timmy scores an Oscars turkey, and goes home empty-handed for the third time. “Call me by my name,” he’ll whisper. “Call me by my name.”

Much more carefree and breezy is Jessie Buckley, who will enjoy a clean sweep in 2026. 

She was called up as Best Actress for her incredible performance in “Hamnet.” The Irish sensation has yet to lose a single major award and that will continue when she wins her first Oscar.

A week after winning the BAFTA, no-show Sean Penn took home Best Supporting Actor Sunday for playing Colonel Lockjaw in “One Battle After Another.” Lockjaw isn’t a lock yet, but chances are Penn wins his third Academy Award.

And over in Supporting Actress, Amy Madigan, who played creepy Aunt Gladys in “Weapons,” emerged victorious. It was widely expected. She’s very well loved by members of her union. Madigan is now favored by a bright-red hair over competitors Teyana Taylor (“One Battle”) and Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”), but Taylor or Mosaku could also get a finish-line boost from their movies’ success.

What of TV? “The Studio” won for Ensemble in a Comedy Series, while “The Pitt” took Drama. Duh.

The standout moment of the night wasn’t an acceptance speech.

It came when Harrison Ford — Han Solo, Indiana Jones, the biggest movie star in the room — was so deservedly honored with SAG’s Life Achievement Award. His touching speech was a model of grace, humility and raw star power. Peers in the audience, rapt, were tearing up.

“Many actors are here to receive an award for their amazing work,” he said. “I’m here to receive a prize for being alive.”

Ford’s stunner was the best five minutes of any award show in years.

And the night’s most heartfelt moment was when Catherine O’Hara, who died in January at age 71, won Best Actress in a Comedy Series for her hilarious work on “The Studio.” The comic genius received a standing ovation.

Accepting the prize, “Studio” star and creator Seth Rogen said, “We were lucky to live in a world where she so generously shared her talents with us.”

Two weeks to go till the Oscars.